Starmer's Backers Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Mayor's Commons Comeback

Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.

Serious Barriers in the Candidate Selection Process

A number of figures on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are anxious to avoid any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially contest the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any planning, stating he is passionate about his current role and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of insiders also shared fears about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

However, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The trade unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to mount a strong campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.

The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.